Monday, September 25, 2006

Big $$$$$ for Indevus?

I estimate a 1bn dollar annual market for a stuttering medication.

Assume that 1% of the population stutters,
1bn people have access and can afford the medication,
10% of them would take it, and
the annual costs for the medication is around 1000$ (80$ per month).

That gives us 10 million people who could afford and have access to it, and 1 million people who would take it, and 1000 million dollars income per year.


Anonymous said...

Hello Tom

I know BSA membership may not be representative but I would hazard the guess that those people severe enough to consider taking medication are a much smaller proportion than the 0.1% of the total population?


Tom Weidig said...

Hi Norbert,

The 10% was just a first guess. It might well be lower, but more than 1%, so the market is at least 100 million dollar per year.

As you said, the BSA (British Stammering Assoc) membership is most likely not representative of the general population of people who stutter. I would expect that "the others" are suffering more and more likely to take an easy-way-out medication as opposed to going through a more painful coming-out.

I have thought about making a survey and asking people who stutter. I am sure this would be of interest to the pharmaceutical companies.

Any idea how to do this, preferably without BSA membership bias? We could still ask the BSA members and this would be a floor on the estimate, i.e. "the others" would at the very least be as likely to take the medication.


Hugo said...

Create a mini-poll in