Thursday, October 09, 2008

Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

John Ioannidis is saying exactly in this article what I have always believed that most published medical research is wrong. Stuttering is no except to the rule.
There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.
He should write a second article on what happens when others are pointing out issues in research. I tell you what happens when I point out issues: nothing, absolutely nothing. It is still being spread, and the only antitode is to shout as loud as possible: it's false. And of course I need to face up that people start to think of me as an eccentric outside who are no clue, really.


Anon... said...

Tom - The "experts" hope you recognize you are pissin' in the wind, and it's just blowin' back on you. You are a mesquito...quit buggin' them before they take the flyswatter to you!

The reseachers in Stuttering are pure, unadulterated reseachers producing unquestionably accurate research. And it's not just the Aussies... The Americans have the same attitude. Stuttering is the only area of research that is never false.

We who stutter just are unable to accept and understand that. Will we ever learn?

Anonymous said...


All I see is someone who cant spell (mosquito !)and a person who has accepted that they will stutter all their life.

Tom is providing info and research findings....what are you doing?

When news is bad (i.e. bad research findings, they will not shout it from the hills, they will keep it quiet or distort the results to show what they want.....Lies, damn lies and statistics.

anon... said...

anonymous -

We must have gone to the same school. (cant...can't). As well, you must have missed that week where the teacher discussed how to use ( ) & , . Oh - yeah...You were that kid in the special remediation class. Sorry -- I forgot.

I do enjoy reading "The Stuttering Brain Blog". I don't agree with all of Tom's stuff, but he does clearly present his view, which I admire.

And me? Yes, I just complain. That's what I do. It's what I'm all about. I could stop complaining, but that wouldn't be any fun for me. Maybe I should just keep paying the experts more money for their "researched" cures?

What current "researched" cure are you using so you don't stutter your whole life away?

I stutter. I do accept that. What I don't accept is the"professional expert" bullshit.

Sounds like you're still looking for that silver bullet...Good luck with that.