Monday, July 05, 2010

Breaking News: Pagoclone study likely to be negative

I have just confirmed that Jerry Maguire, Chief Investigator of the Pagoclone trial, has indeed left this message on my blog:
Hi, Tom. I will be presenting the results of the Pagoclone Phase IIb study at this week's NSA convention in Cleveland. I'll be available to you and your readers for any questions. Jerry
The fact that Jerry is releasing the data at the conference on Friday and not the company in a press release strongly suggests to me, among other bits of information here and there, that the outcome of the Pagoclone study is likely to be negative. Here is my prediction: Effectively, the stuttering in the Pagoclone group was not significantly reduced in comparison to the control group. That's the end of Pagoclone as the miracle drug. There is no miracle, and much disappointment for those who are desperately looking for an easy way out...

The outcome would be inline with my predictions: see my recent posts on Pagoclone. But there is valuable information in the study, like the behaviour of the placebo group over the six months. Did the measurement tools show an improvement or not? If yes, ALL OUTCOME STUDIES ARE FLAWED! Why? Because all studies will have an up-lift due to the placebo effect.

I very much hope that the company Teva and Indevus is going to release the raw data (or at least to scientists). Maybe there are some signals in the data that would give us more clues about measurement tools and possibly about subgroups.

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

just wait and see...

Scott said...

Very interesting indeed. I've been on Pagoclone for over a year now and unless there is a VERY strong placebo effect, I know that it works.

Tom Weidig said...

Scott:

There could be a combination of

a) you were just hitting a good fluency patch.

b) you had a placebo effect.


Anonym:

As I said, if the company does not release themselves, I am nearly convinced that there is no strong effect.

Pam said...

Tom,
Will you be at the conference? I will,and will be listening with interest to all of those presenting at the Research Symposium.
I found it a little disappointing last year, so we'll see how this year's goes. I think people (especially parents) get worked up believing there is some great break-through on the horizon, and then find its status quo.

ig88sir said...

I was on pagaclone for 1 year and it had no effect on me. Too bad I cannot make the NSA conference..maybe next year..

Best antidote for stuttering: Coastal Breathing.

Gerald Maguire, M.D. said...

Hi, Tom. Your comments are jumping a bit to conclusion. I'll be able to confirm more details at the NSA convention this week. I'll also be discussing the updates on the stuttering classification for the upcoming DSM V. Jerry

Tom Weidig said...

Hi Jerry,

Of course, I am jumping a bit to conclusions! That's why people read my blog!

In finance, it's called the mosaic theory. I am building up my opinion based on my understanding/beliefs about Pagoclone, publicly available information like your conference announcement, and non-material non-public information called gossip.

We will see on Friday! Too bad I can't be there.

Best wishes,
Tom

Kang said...

Tom was too hasty in his conclusions. As always...

Kang said...

Tom was too hasty in his conclusions. As always...

Anonymous said...

Jerry - SHOW ME THE MONEY...er, results and findings.

Ora said...

Jerry, I admire your work. For people who stutter and who are not U.S., how they do to deal with you? Thank you.

UrbanMermaid said...

I agree with Dr McGuire. Let's first hear the results and then speculate. I have to say I have nothing but pure admiration for Dr McGuire's work! Hope Pagaclone is released soon

Mr. Finch said...

I am currently taking pagoclone and have been for 4 years. It has worked wonders for me. no, it's not perfect, but it brings my fluency up from pitiful to pretty darn good. My wife can always tell if I've forgotten a dose or two, because my stutter will be significantly worse.

Maybe it only works on certain kinds of stuttering, but it definitely has worked well for me. I would pay a lot to have this drug. In fact, I live about 5 hours from where they were doing the clinical trial, and made the trip 4 times a year just so I could stay in the study.

Anonymous said...

Yo - The UrbanMermaid is TOTALLY SIZZLE!!!! Yowzah!!!

Anonymous said...

A combination gene replacement therapy with Pagoclone, followed with Lidcombe Therapy, Solution Focused Brief Therapy, Fluency Training, Stuttering Modification Therapy, Hybrid Therapy, Cognitive Therapy and the SpeechEasy will soon be available to those who stutter as an ongoing total lifetime package therapy product.

The cure is in there somewhere...

Ora said...

To the "Ora" who wrote "Jerry, I admire your work":

I'm startled to see another person with my name. Is Ora really your name?

Anonymous said...

in the case of pagoclone is not released ,,,thanks a lot,, dr mcguire, for me you are a hero ,,you made a lot of people dream about the cure